The prognosis for the 2027-28 period is for accelerating trailer demand which will lead to a high sales level comparable to the previous peak levels in 2008 and 2018
CLEAR International has just issued its May 2025 forecast for the West European Heavy Trailer Market.
On 23 April 2025 the ECB refinancing rate was reduced to 2.4%. National banks elsewhere have also reduced their interest rates once, and in some cases twice, this year. After two years of falling trailer sales a substantial rebound in demand was a reasonable expectation. All that was needed was a stable economic environment – GDP forecasts for 2025 were already more positive for West European nations.
And then a trade war started. Or more specifically, a tariff war was launched by the US government. Significant and sometimes massive tariffs were placed on goods coming into the USA, and in many cases the recipient countries responded with tariffs on US goods.
It cannot be emphasised enough that one of the main issues preventing companies investing in new trailers was a lack of business confidence. Although the perceived impact of the new tariffs is now more moderate, the commencement of any increase in trailer demand has now definitely been postponed until the second half of the current year.
Growth in the forecast period will bring the trailer sales level close to that of 2022 by 2027. 2025 will still be positive in terms of both the West European economy and trailer registration growth. Trailer demand, which was forecast to increase by more than 10%, is now expected to grow by only 6%. All West European countries will see some growth apart from the possible exceptions of Austria and Switzerland. Germany also had low trailer registration in the first half of the current year but a rebound is expected in the second half.
After a strong trailer production recovery from covid in 2021/22, output was flung into reverse in 2023/24. Not only were West European registrations in 2024 more than 10% below the level of 2023, but in addition, the large numbers of West European trailers that were previously exported to Russia (and Belarus) have been severely cut back or stopped altogether.
Instead, most of the trucks now sold in Russia are thought to be supplied from China. China also has huge capacity for the manufacture of trailers and can easily supply demand previously met from European sources. This particularly affects large exporters in Germany and elsewhere in the West European region.
On a more positive note, the demand for road transport in Western Europe (measured in tonne-km), having fallen by 4% in 2023 was estimated flat in 2024, with the prospect of an increase in 2025.
The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for May 2025, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, showed that the CLIs for the UK, Italy, Germany, France and Spain are all just over the trend level which is 100 on the index. This suggests there will be an improvement in the economic growth of these countries in the next six months.
Gary Beecroft, director of CLEAR International commented, “The outlook for the West European Trailer Market in 2025 has been knocked back by the the tariff wars by the US and its trading partners. This has reduced business confidence in companies that purchase transport assets such as trailers. Prospects for growth in demand have been halved in 2025.”
This report outlines when, where and how quickly the trailer market will recover and develop through to 2029