*By 2028 the market will have surpassed the sales level of 2018 and be close to the record level
Industry analysts CLEAR International has issued its June 2026 forecast for the West European Heavy Goods Trailer Market.
The West European trailer market has shown a marked recovery, growing by 8.8% in the second half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Momentum has continued into 2026, with demand rising by 10.7% in the first four months of the year.
For 2026, trailer demand in Western Europe is forecast to grow by 7%, with even stronger expansion expected in 2027–28. After weak new trailer demand in 2023-25 significant pent-up demand has developed. In 2027 and 2028 economies will strengthen in terms of both GDP in general, and also investment levels. The trailer replacement cycle will also be favourable until the end of the decade.
So far, the war in Iran appears to have no impact at all on the trailer registration figures in 2026. However, it is already causing inflation in Western Europe. Expected interest rate cuts have already been postponed in Europe and elsewhere. There is anecdotal evidence of trailer orders being cancelled plus a lack of new orders.
As a result, the forecast for trailer demand in 2026 had been reduced – but not by a large amount. The forecasts for Denmark and the UK have actually been increased for 2026 as a result of strong demand in January to April. The forecast demand for five other countries have small increases and the remaining eight have lower forecasts.
If the Iran war can be ended by mid-2026, a catastrophic fall in business confidence can be avoided and further downgrades of the outlook for trailer demand will not be necessary. Otherwise a fall of more than 15,000 trailers below the forecast level for 2026 is possible, primarily caused by a fall in business’s willingness to invest in new equipment.
Further into the future, we can be almost certain that the market will experience a cyclical downturn by the end of the decade. This is currently assumed to occur in 2030.
Road transport demand in Western Europe (measured in tonne‑kilometres) fell by 4.0% in 2023, but returned to growth with increases of 0.6% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2025. More robust expansion is anticipated in the years ahead.
Meanwhile, the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for May 2026 show Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Spain all above the trend level of 100, signalling improving economic conditions over the next six months.
Gary Beecroft, Director of Clear International commented: “Economic growth in the region will remain moderate but positive for the next three years. Interest rates and inflation have been knocked off course by the war in Iran. A rapid resolution will prevent serious damage to the market for commercial vehicles in 2026. Pent-up demand caused by three years of weak trailer sales will boost the recovery. It is possible that many published economic forecasts for Western Europe are too pessimistic.”
The report outlines when, where and how quickly the trailer market will recover and develop through to 2030.