European road freight contract and spot rates rise in tandem

European road freight contract and spot rates reached around 134 points in Q3 2025, according to Upply–Ti–IRU’s European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Report released today.

Quarter on quarter, the Upply–Ti–IRU benchmark spot rate index increased by 1.7 points to 134.3, while the contract rate index rose by 1.7 points to 134. Year on year, the spot rate is up 1.9 points, while the contract rate is up 3.1 points.
Year on year, EU retail trade volume rose by 1.1% in August 2025.
The Eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.7 in August, the first reading above the growth threshold since mid-2022, although it fell back to 49.8 in September.
The Road Freight Sentiment Index for Q3 stands at 12.7, up 4.5 points from Q2, indicating that respondents expect a slight increase in the next quarter.
The outlook for rates across Europe is modest upward pressure, driven by seasonal restocking ahead of the holiday period and gradual recovery in manufacturing activity.
Fuel prices remained mostly stable in Q3 2025, while CNG prices continued to fall in Italy and Spain.
Several countries raised their toll rates in Q3 2025: Romania by 17.8%, Bulgaria by 7.7%, and Slovakia by 40.9%, alongside a VAT increase in July. No further adjustments are expected in Q4 2025, though major changes are anticipated for 2026.

Both contract and spot rates rose steadily through Q3 2025.

The rate increases are being driven by multiple factors. On the demand side, retail activity is showing signs of recovery, ahead of the busy holiday season. Manufacturing, while still fragile, saw a brief return to expansion in August with the Eurozone PMI crossing the 50-point threshold for the first time since 2022, although the recovery remains turbulent, as the PMI contracted again in September.

Ti Head of Commercial Development Michael Clover said, “The parallel rise in both contract and spot rates reflects a market that’s gradually recovering. Manufacturing is showing tentative signs of stabilisation, while consumer demand is providing a solid foundation for growth. The increase in contract rates is also being fuelled by a bounce back in manufacturing activity. However, the recovery remains fragile and uneven across Europe, with Germany continuing to face challenges, while Spain’s economy shows a considerably stronger momentum.”

Capacity dynamics continue to shape the market. New registrations for medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles dropped sharply in Q3 2025, with fewer than 32,000 units recorded, a steep 39% decline from the previous quarter.

In Germany, transport and logistics recorded the highest insolvency rate of any sector in 2024, at 14 per 1,000 VAT-liable companies, which is effectively tightening capacity as smaller operators exit the market.

The cost environment shows mixed signals. While diesel prices declined in Q2 2025, they stabilised in Q3. Tolls have also increased across multiple countries. These cost rises are contributing to upwards pressure on rates, particularly on contract prices.

IRU Senior Director for Strategy and Development Vincent Erard added, “Road freight rates continue to rise and are now outpacing inflation, reflecting the squeeze from structural costs and a more complex and uncertain regulatory landscape. Following national implementation of the latest Eurovignette Directive, tolling has become a major driver of operating expenses across the EU with toll rates per kilometre close to, and sometimes even higher than, fuel prices per kilometre. In this context, fleet renewal can reduce total cost of ownership but requires confidence to deploy capital. A balanced regulatory approach, emphasising clear, positive investment incentives over additional tolls and taxes, is essential to unlock that confidence and accelerate renewal.

The Upply–Ti–IRU European Road Freight Sentiment Index rose 4.5 points to 12.7 in Q3 2025, marking the strongest positive sentiment since late 2023. Most respondents (46.3%) expect a slight increase in rates, while only 14% anticipate a decrease, the lowest share of bearish sentiment in nearly two years.

Upply Chief Executive Officer Thomas Larrieu commented, “Our data shows that the convergence of spot and contract rates points to a gradual rebalancing of the European road freight market after several quarters of adjustment. While this trend reflects improving stability, notable disparities remain across countries and lanes. This growing synchronisation offers greater visibility for both shippers and carriers, but persistent regional volatility shows that the path to full stability in Europe is still underway.”