*8% growth is forecast in the second half of 2025.
*Prognosis for 2026-28 period is for further increases in trailer demand
Commercial Vehicle researchers CLEAR International has just issued its November 2025 forecast for the West European Heavy Goods Trailer Market.
As noted in the last report, the imposition of tariffs on imports to the USA caused a great deal of uncertainty, and as a consequence, a loss of business confidence. This had a real impact on the willingness of hauliers to invest in new trailers. Nevertheless, 8.4% growth is forecast for the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. However, this will not be enough to offset the fall in demand in the first half of 2025 meaning growth in demand for the whole year will still be very slightly negative.
There will be no direct effect on West European trailer production because exports of heavy goods trailers to the USA from Europe approximate to zero.
Two countries in particular within Western Europe have had weak trailer demand in 2025 compared to expectations at the beginning of the year: Germany and France – incidentally the two largest trailer markets in the region. Both have suffered as a result of the knock on effects of the war in Ukraine. Germany was in recession in 2023/24 and France has suffered considerable political turmoil which still continues. As a result, investment in these two economies shrank producing a fall of over 25% in trailer registrations in both countries.
Six countries in the region are forecast to have an increase in trailer registrations in 2025. These are Finland, Denmark, Norway, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. In some cases this is as a result of particularly weak registrations in 2023/24 creating pent-up demand.
The large numbers of West European trailers that were previously exported to Russia (and Belarus) have been severely cut back or stopped altogether due to sanctions implemented as result of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Instead, most of the trucks now sold in Russia are thought to be supplied from China. China also has huge capacity for the manufacture of trailers and can easily supply demand previously met from European sources. This particularly affects large exporters in Germany and elsewhere in the West European region.
On a more positive note, the demand for road transport in Western Europe (measured in tonne-km), having fallen by 4% in 2023, was flat in 2024 with every prospect of an increase in 2025.
The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for May 2025, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, showed that the CLIs for the Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain are all just over the trend level, which is 100 on the index. This suggests there will be an improvement in the economic growth of these countries in the next six months. In October 2025 all of these countries except Spain were over 101 on the index.
Gary Beecroft, Director of Clear International commented, “We are now sailing into slightly more benign waters. Economic growth in the region will remain moderate but positive for the next three years. Interest rates and inflation should continue to fall. Pent-up demand caused by three years of weak trailer demand will boost the recovery.”
This report outlines when, where and how quickly the trailer market will recover and develop through to 2029